Card games | Whats the simple secret to winning this random card game? 1/2
Peter Webb, Bet Angel – Where to find quality racing in November
Despite being useless at maths at school when I started to try and solve the puzzle of how to price markets I realised I needed to brush up on my statistics knowledge and became fascinated by games of chance and probability.
I came across a technique for games of chance that allowed you to win more often than your opponent and converted it into a card game that performed even better.
There are lessons to be learnt with this game, on how to interpret random events. If you are clever enough you can exploit this in a Betfair, sports, or financial trading market, where market commentators or participants don’t fully understand what they are seeing and act on it.
In this game, we have no control of the deck or the order in which the cards are drawn. We even give our opponent the opportunity to pick the opening sequence, so that we can’t possibly influence that.
We then draw the cards till the end of the deck to see which sequence occurs more often.
Of course, the deck is shuffled and we have no influence over the order in which the cards come out. Yet we just keep on winning and winning.
We know, in an unlimited deck, that the chance of drowning a red or black is 50/50. We know the chance of any sequence occurring is random and can not be favourable if the cards are drawn randomly.
We don’t use an unlimited deck here, but the randomness remains. There is a 50/50 chance, more or less, of a black or red.
So how do I keep on winning?
If you want to see the follow-up video to this one visit – https://youtu.be/RTi5ekVHIM8
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