Football statistics – Expected goals – xG – Why Jeff Stelling is wrong!

I did a lot of analysis many years ago on how to price a football match and ended up not just looking at the final result but also shots and the chance of any shot going in.

Expected goals or xG has now been popularised and used in the media and it’s useful to understand exactly what it means and how it is constructed.

I no longer go through the process of doing it myself as there are loads of really good sites out there that collect, analysis and distribute this data.