If the Betfair trading markets are efficient, how can you profit?
Whether it’s financial markets or Betfair trading I’ve learnt to accept that the market are efficient, but that they are not!
It’s a common contradiction that I see occurring everywhere. It’s often used to ‘prove’ that you can make money in a market. However, I’ve never felt that I can’t profit whether it’s through investing or Betfair trading.
The fact is, the market is efficient in aggregate, but not necessarily at a granular level. This popped up in a book I listened to recently called superforecasting.
So it seemed sensible to discuss it. I know it’s possible to profit in efficient markets because that’s exactly what I’ve been doing for a very long time. Hopefully I’ll explain