If the Betfair trading markets are efficient, how can you profit?
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Whether it’s financial markets or Betfair trading I’ve learnt to accept that the market are efficient, but that they are not!
It’s a common contradiction that I see occurring everywhere. It’s often used to ‘prove’ that you can make money in a market. However, I’ve never felt that I can’t profit whether it’s through investing or Betfair trading.
The fact is, the market is efficient in aggregate, but not necessarily at a granular level. This popped up in a book I listened to recently called superforecasting.
So it seemed sensible to discuss it. I know it’s possible to profit in efficient markets because that’s exactly what I’ve been doing for a very long time. Hopefully I’ll explain