NEW xG Stat for YOUR Betfair Trading Strategy! Is it the BEST yet?
XG stats are all the rage with Betfair Trading and Sports Betting but we have just released a new statistic that may be better than it! Can’t wait for you to test out some football trading strategies using it.
Summary
We’ve added some new versions of these two existing ratings: Goal Supremacy and Goal Expectation
Purposes
To provide a finer breakdown of these ratings, to help people make better predictions for upcoming matches.
Goal Supremacy definition
Aa measure of one team’s dominance over the other. It is a rating on a scale of -100 to +100 and is based on each teams average goals scored and conceded (home matches for the home team, away matches for the away team) and their matches against the same opposition type. A positive number indicates home team dominance over the away team (the higher the figure, the greater the dominance). A negative number indicates away team dominance over the home team (the more negative the figure, the greater the dominance).
Goal Expectation definition
An estimate of the number of goals that may be scored in the match, based on a combination of an enhanced poisson distribution model and the Betfair markets. HT and FT versions of this rating are provided, as well as versions calculated over different match scopes: last 5/10 matches, current season and 1 year.
Key Points
Ratings are found by clicking the Football Ratings button on the user dashboard
We’ve added 5 matches / 10 matches / 1 year / current season versions of goal expectation, as well as HT/FT breakdown (i.e. first half predicted goals, FT predicted goals)
Goal expectation is different to the xG stat in the software. xG is a historical figure whereas this rating tries to make an actual prediction for the upcoming match
For goal expectation, we use our own poisson distribution model which takes into account both teams’ match history and the Betfair correct score market
“What if the goal expectation predictions for last 5 and 10 matches are all different?” Past results don’t necessarily reliably predict future performance. You may wish to consider the ratings that have a smaller variation as more reliable.
A goal expectation value of -1 means the model couldn’t make a reliable prediction. These should be ignored
We’ve added new columns, so people who are exporting into some spreadsheet template will need to update those templates
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